The most common autumn-trip mistake is quiet and expensive: booking Kyoto for November 10-18 because "mid-November is peak", then walking through green temples while the maples turn red four days after your flight home. Guidebook dates are running a decade behind the climate. Here are the dates the leaves actually peaked over the last six years - and how to fix a trip that is already booked wrong.
The short answer
For Kyoto and Tokyo in 2026, book November 20 to December 5. The latest official forecast, out October 1, backs it: the Japan Meteorological Corporation calls Tokyo's full-color date for November 28 and Kyoto's for December 11 - both "about normal", and normal now means late. In each of the last three seasons Kyoto's temples peaked in the last week of November and held into early December. Early November is not a Kyoto date - it is a Nikko, Tohoku and Hokkaido date.
This guide is the data behind that claim. If you want the full month picture - weather, crowds, packing - that lives in our Japan in November guide. This page is about one decision: which dates to lock, and what to do if you already locked the wrong ones.
The last six years: actual peak dates by city
The pattern is one-directional. In 2020, Kyoto peaked around November 18-27. By 2023-2025 the peak started around November 22-26 and ran into December. Tokyo's city peak landed on December 3-4 in 2023 and 2024, and November 26 - December 2 in 2025. Nikko's upper elevations, meanwhile, have stayed reliably mid-October. Same country, six-week spread - which is exactly why a one-size November booking fails.
| Year | Sapporo (city) | Nikko (upper) | Tokyo | Kyoto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | late Oct-early Nov (JMA full color Nov 7) | Oct 13 (obs.) | late Nov (obs.; JMA Nov 27) | Nov 18-27 (obs.) |
| 2021 | early Nov (JMA Nov 4) | mid-late Oct (est.) | late Nov (JMA Nov 27) | late Nov-early Dec (est.; no JMA record) |
| 2022 | early Nov (JMA Nov 10) | mid-late Oct (est.) | late Nov (JMA Nov 26) | late Nov-early Dec (est.; JMA Dec 12) |
| 2023 | early Nov (JMA Nov 10) | Oct 17 (obs.) | Dec 4 (obs.) | ~Nov 26 (obs.) |
| 2024 | early Nov (JMA Nov 11) | late Oct (obs.) | Dec 3 (obs.) | Nov 28-Dec 4 (obs.) |
| 2025 | early Nov (JMA Nov 6) | Oct 20 (obs.) | Nov 26-Dec 2 (obs.) | Nov 22-Dec 5 (obs.) |
About the sources: "obs." cells come from dated field reports (japan-guide's autumn color reports). The JMA still records an official maple full-color date at a sample tree in Tokyo, Kyoto and Sapporo - the day most of its leaves have turned, so it trails the best-viewing window by up to a week or two. Kyoto: December 7 in 2020, no record in 2021, December 12 in 2022, December 13 in 2023, December 20 in 2024, December 10 in 2025 - every recorded year later than the December 5 normal. Tokyo: November 26-29 in 2020-2023, December 3 in 2024, November 23 in 2025, against a November 28 normal. Sapporo: November 4-11 every year since 2020, against an October 28 normal. Field reports from 2021-2022 are thin because Japan's borders were closed, so those cells lean on the JMA date. Nikko "upper" means the Okunikko lake-and-waterfall area; Nikko town (Toshogu) turns two to three weeks later, in early-to-mid November.
Why peaks keep sliding later
Maples need sustained cold - roughly, mornings dipping below 8C - to switch color, and those mornings keep arriving later. Japan's autumn 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1898, and autumn 2024 broke that record again at about 2C above the 1991-2020 normal; 2025 came third, at +1.37C (JMA data). Warm Octobers and Novembers push the color switch back, which is why the same Kyoto temples that peaked around November 18 in 2020 now peak a week or more later.
2026 is shaping up the same way. JMC's October 1 update expects a warmer-than-normal October across the country and calls the city maples "about normal" almost everywhere - with Nagano nine days late and Sapporo seven. The Japan Weather Association's October 14 round goes further: normal or later, with many lowland spots in eastern and western Japan running late. Weathernews (October 8) says the same for anything that usually peaks after mid-October. Nothing in the current data suggests an early season.
How to read the official forecasts
The 2026 forecasts are out. The Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) released its second round on October 1, 2026, after a first on September 2. Headline call: Tokyo full color November 28, Kyoto December 11, Osaka December 4, all "about normal"; the next JMC round is due in early November. Spot-by-spot detail lives on JMC's koyo forecast page (works with browser translation).
The Japan Weather Association's forecast is a separate product on tenki.jp: its first 2026 round came on October 1 (September 18 last year) and the second on October 14, with more updates through November, and its live "current color status" pages are not the forecast. A third forecaster, Weathernews, published on September 3 and October 8, with its next round due in late October.
JMC's October 1 city dates (maple full color, with the gap to normal): Sapporo November 4 (+7 days), Aomori November 13 (0), Sendai November 24 (+3), Nagano November 21 (+9), Tokyo November 28 (0), Kanazawa November 30 (+6), Nagoya December 2 (+4), Kyoto December 11 (+6), Osaka December 4 (+3), Hiroshima November 28 (+6), Fukuoka December 7 (+6). Only Sapporo, Sendai and Tokyo moved from the September round, each one to three days earlier. Ginkgo turns earlier: Tokyo November 26, Kyoto November 27. JMC does not forecast Nikko or Kamakura as cities; those are on the spot pages. The other two forecasters work spot by spot: the Japan Weather Association has Nikko's Iroha-zaka at its best from October 23 and Mt Takao from November 19, eight days later than last year, while Weathernews puts Nikko in late October and Kyoto's Arashiyama in late November.
Three reading rules, because the maps confuse almost everyone. First, know which date you are reading: JMC's city dates follow the JMA standard - the day most leaves on the sample tree have turned - which lands near the end of best viewing, not the start; the spot pages give a viewing window instead, and that window typically lasts about two weeks. Second, look up your specific spots, not the prefecture headline: "Kyoto" hides a three-week spread between the Takao hills and the downtown temples. Third, the early rounds (September and early October) are for booking cities and hotels; the late-October and early-November rounds are for planning your actual days. Do not cancel anything based on one round.
Booked too early? Change your base, not your trip
If your dates are November 1-15 and non-refundable, do not cancel - re-aim. Those are excellent foliage dates in the wrong places. Swap Kyoto ambitions for the places that genuinely peak then: Nikko town, Tohoku, Kanazawa and the Japan Alps. You will see better color in half the crowd, and the flights you already bought still work.
A concrete early-November plan from Tokyo: two days in Nikko (Toshogu and the town approach peak early-to-mid November; the upper lakes will be past peak but still dramatic), then the Tohoku shinkansen north - Yamadera and the Naruko or Geibikei gorges typically hold color into early November - or west to Kanazawa's Kenroku-en, which usually turns from mid-November. We have mapped that northern route day by day in our 7-day Tohoku itinerary by train: no car, no rental-desk Japanese, and the route is built around exactly these late-October to mid-November color dates. If you are locked into Kyoto itself, spend your days in its early-turning corners: the Takao valley northwest of the city and the Kurama-Kibune hills run a week or two ahead of the downtown temples. And if your Kyoto days land inside the peak window, the Sagano Romantic Train through the Hozu gorge is the ticket to sort before you arrive.
If Nikko is the swap you pick, mind the official 2026 congestion calendar: Nikko flags October 17-18, 24-25, 30-31 and November 1-2, 7-9, 13-16, 20-22 as its heaviest days (60+ minutes from the station to the shrines). The next question is whether two days means two hotel nights: we broke down those congestion bands, the first Tobu express and the pass math in our Nikko day-trip-or-overnight guide.
Booked too late? The early-December secret
December 1-7 is quietly one of the best foliage windows in Japan now. In each of the last three seasons, Kyoto still had peak or near-peak color in the first week of December, and Tokyo's reports hit peak on December 2-4. Meanwhile the November crowds evaporate, hotel rates drop from their autumn maximum, and the ginkgo avenues - Tokyo's Meiji Jingu Gaien, Kyoto's temple ginkgos - hold gold to around December 10.
The trade-offs are real but small: most temple night illuminations end in the first days of December, mornings sit near 5C, and you are betting on the late trend holding - a sharp early cold snap would move the season forward. Given that Kyoto's official full-color date has landed after its December 5 normal in every recorded year since 2020, and JMC's October forecast still calls December 11, it is a good bet. A December 1-8 Kyoto trip beats a November 8-15 one on current form. The rest of that early-December picture, illuminations and the year-end shutdown included, is in our Japan in December guide.
City-by-city booking windows for 2026
Book to these windows and re-check the forecast as the late-October and early-November rounds land: Kyoto November 20 - December 5. Tokyo November 25 - December 10 (ginkgo buys you the extra week). Nikko town November 1-15, or mid-October for the upper lakes. Tohoku late October - mid November. Sapporo and Hokkaido cities late October - early November - JMC calls Sapporo's full color for November 4, a week late, so lean toward the back of that window. Kanazawa and the Alps: mid-to-late November, with mountain color from late October.
Still deciding between the two months at all? The heat, rain and price side of that call is in our October vs November comparison. For the rest of the year, month by month, see our best time to visit Japan guide.
Hotels are the constraint, not flights. Late-November Kyoto is the tightest room market of the autumn - on par with sakura season - and the peak weeks sell through months ahead. Book a free-cancellation rate for your window now, then adjust as the late-October and November forecast rounds land. For peak-week Kyoto searches, filter for free cancellation and keep the booking flexible until the forecast firms up.
Frequently asked questions
When do leaves peak in Kyoto in 2026?
Most likely November 20 to December 5. The latest JMC forecast (October 1, 2026) still calls Kyoto's full-color date for December 11, six days after normal, and Weathernews (October 8) puts Arashiyama at its best in late November. That matches the last three observed seasons (peak ran roughly Nov 22-Dec 5 in 2025, Nov 28-Dec 4 in 2024, and from ~Nov 26 in 2023). The next JMC round is due in early November.
Is early November too early for autumn leaves?
For Kyoto and Tokyo, yes - the city temples are mostly green with scattered early color in the first half of November. Early November is exactly right for Nikko town, Tohoku, Kanazawa's start, and Hokkaido's tail end. Match the region to your dates instead of forcing Kyoto.
Where is the foliage in late October?
In the mountains and the north: Okunikko above Nikko (peaked Oct 17-20 in 2023 and 2025), the Naruko and Oirase gorges in Tohoku, the Japan Alps, and Hokkaido's city parks. Lowland Tokyo and Kyoto are still green in late October.
Is Kyoto still good in early December?
Yes. The first week of December held peak or near-peak color in each of the last three seasons, with far thinner crowds and cheaper rooms than late November. The official full-coloration date in Kyoto fell on December 10 in 2025. By mid-December the show is over.
When do the official foliage forecasts come out?
The 2026 rounds are already out. JMC published on September 2 and October 1, with the next round due in early November. The Japan Weather Association's tenki.jp forecast started later than usual, on October 1 (its 2025 first forecast came September 18), updated on October 14 and plans three to four rounds through November. Weathernews published on September 3 and October 8, with a third round due in late October.
How reliable is the foliage forecast?
Directionally reliable, not to-the-day. It is a temperature model, and each round gets sharper: in 2025 it correctly called a later-than-normal season from the September release. Use the first round to book cities and hotels, and the late-October round to plan individual days. Never cancel a trip over round one.
