The most common autumn-trip mistake is quiet and expensive: booking Kyoto for November 10-18 because "mid-November is peak", then walking through green temples while the maples turn red four days after your flight home. Guidebook dates are running a decade behind the climate. Here are the dates the leaves actually peaked over the last six years - and how to fix a trip that is already booked wrong.
The short answer
For Kyoto and Tokyo in 2026, book November 20 to December 5. In every one of the last three seasons, Kyoto's temples hit peak color in the last week of November and held it into the first week of December. Early November is not a Kyoto date - it is a Nikko, Tohoku and Hokkaido date. The colors have been arriving later, year after year, and the trend is not reversing.
This guide is the data behind that claim. If you want the full month picture - weather, crowds, packing - that lives in our Japan in November guide. This page is about one decision: which dates to lock, and what to do if you already locked the wrong ones.
The last six years: actual peak dates by city
The pattern is one-directional. In 2020, Kyoto peaked around November 18-27. By 2023-2025 the peak started around November 22-26 and ran into December, and Tokyo's city peak landed on December 2-4 in three straight seasons. Nikko's upper elevations, meanwhile, have stayed reliably mid-to-late October. Same country, six-week spread - which is exactly why a one-size November booking fails.
| Year | Sapporo (city) | Nikko (upper) | Tokyo | Kyoto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | late Oct (est.) | mid-late Oct (est.) | late Nov (est.) | Nov 18-27 (obs.) |
| 2021 | late Oct-early Nov (est.) | mid-late Oct (est.) | late Nov-early Dec (est.) | late Nov (est.) |
| 2022 | late Oct-early Nov (est.) | mid-late Oct (est.) | late Nov-early Dec (est.) | late Nov-early Dec (est.) |
| 2023 | early Nov (est.) | Oct 17 (obs.) | Dec 4 (obs.) | ~Nov 26 (obs.) |
| 2024 | early Nov (est.) | late Oct (obs.) | Dec 3 (obs.) | Nov 28-Dec 4 (obs.) |
| 2025 | late Oct-mid Nov (est.) | Oct 20 (obs.) | Nov 26-Dec 2 (obs.) | Nov 22-Dec 5 (obs.) |
About the sources: "obs." cells come from dated field reports (japan-guide's autumn color reports), cross-checked against the Kyoto Local Meteorological Observatory, which still records the official maple full-coloration date each year - December 7 in 2020, December 12 in 2022, December 13 in 2023, December 20 in 2024, December 10 in 2025. That date marks fully-turned leaves, so it trails the best-viewing window by a week or two - but notice it has landed in December every single year. Reports from 2021-2022 are thin because Japan's borders were closed, and Sapporo city parks are not systematically reported anywhere, so those cells are estimates - treat them as a guide, not gospel. Nikko "upper" means the Okunikko lake-and-waterfall area; Nikko town (Toshogu) turns two to three weeks later, in early-to-mid November.
Why peaks keep sliding later
Maples need sustained cold - roughly, mornings dipping below 8C - to switch color, and those mornings keep arriving later. Japan's autumn 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1898, and autumn 2024 broke that record again at about 2C above the 1991-2020 normal (JMA data). Warm Octobers and Novembers push the color switch back, which is why the same Kyoto temples that peaked around November 18 in 2020 now peak a week or more later.
2026 is shaping up the same way. JMA's three-month outlook issued July 21 calls for near-normal or above-normal temperatures nationwide through October, with the explicit note that autumn colors may run late again. Nothing in the current outlook suggests an early season. When we planned this page, we assumed "later than the guidebooks" - the temperature data backs that up.
How to read the official forecast when it drops
The first 2026 forecast is expected in early September - it is not out yet as of this writing. The Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) published its first forecast on September 2 in 2025, September 4 in 2023 and September 1 in 2022, so early September is a safe bet. It appears on JMC's koyo forecast page (spot-by-spot, works with browser translation), and the Japan Weather Association posts its version on tenki.jp from mid-September. Both update roughly monthly through early November. We will update this page within days of the first release.
Three reading rules, because the maps confuse almost everyone. First, the date shown is when the best-viewing window starts, and that window typically lasts about two weeks - you do not need to be there on the exact day. Second, look up your specific spots, not the prefecture headline: "Kyoto" hides a three-week spread between the Takao hills and the downtown temples. Third, the September round is for booking cities and hotels; the late-October round is for planning your actual days. Do not cancel anything based on round one.
Booked too early? Change your base, not your trip
If your dates are November 1-15 and non-refundable, do not cancel - re-aim. Those are excellent foliage dates in the wrong places. Swap Kyoto ambitions for the places that genuinely peak then: Nikko town, Tohoku, Kanazawa and the Japan Alps. You will see better color in half the crowd, and the flights you already bought still work.
A concrete early-November plan from Tokyo: two days in Nikko (Toshogu and the town approach peak early-to-mid November; the upper lakes will be past peak but still dramatic), then the Tohoku shinkansen north - Yamadera and the Naruko or Geibikei gorges typically hold color into early November - or west to Kanazawa's Kenroku-en, which usually turns from mid-November. We have mapped that northern route day by day in our 7-day Tohoku itinerary by train: no car, no rental-desk Japanese, and the route is built around exactly these late-October to mid-November color dates. If you are locked into Kyoto itself, spend your days in its early-turning corners: the Takao valley northwest of the city and the Kurama-Kibune hills run a week or two ahead of the downtown temples.
Booked too late? The early-December secret
December 1-7 is quietly one of the best foliage windows in Japan now. In each of the last three seasons, Kyoto still had peak or near-peak color in the first week of December, and Tokyo's reports hit peak on December 2-4. Meanwhile the November crowds evaporate, hotel rates drop from their autumn maximum, and the ginkgo avenues - Tokyo's Meiji Jingu Gaien, Kyoto's temple ginkgos - hold gold to around December 10.
The trade-offs are real but small: most temple night illuminations end in the first days of December, mornings sit near 5C, and you are betting on the late trend holding - a sharp early cold snap would move the season forward. Given six consecutive years of late peaks, it is a good bet. A December 1-8 Kyoto trip beats a November 8-15 one on current form.
City-by-city booking windows for 2026
Book to these windows and re-check the forecast in October: Kyoto November 20 - December 5. Tokyo November 25 - December 10 (ginkgo buys you the extra week). Nikko town November 1-15, or mid-October for the upper lakes. Tohoku late October - mid November. Sapporo and Hokkaido cities mid-October - early November. Kanazawa and the Alps: mid-November, with mountain color from late October.
Hotels are the constraint, not flights. Late-November Kyoto is the tightest room market of the autumn - on par with sakura season - and the peak weeks sell through months ahead. Book a free-cancellation rate for your window now, then adjust when the October forecast round lands. For peak-week Kyoto searches: https://www.booking.com/searchresults.html?ss=Kyoto - filter for free cancellation and keep the booking flexible until the forecast firms up.
Frequently asked questions
When do leaves peak in Kyoto in 2026?
Most likely November 20 to December 5, based on the last three observed seasons (peak ran roughly Nov 22-Dec 5 in 2025, Nov 28-Dec 4 in 2024, and from ~Nov 26 in 2023) and another warm autumn in JMA's outlook. The first official forecast lands in early September; we will update this page when it does.
Is early November too early for autumn leaves?
For Kyoto and Tokyo, yes - the city temples are mostly green with scattered early color in the first half of November. Early November is exactly right for Nikko town, Tohoku, Kanazawa's start, and Hokkaido's tail end. Match the region to your dates instead of forcing Kyoto.
Where is the foliage in late October?
In the mountains and the north: Okunikko above Nikko (peaked Oct 17-20 in 2023 and 2025), the Naruko and Oirase gorges in Tohoku, the Japan Alps, and Hokkaido's city parks. Lowland Tokyo and Kyoto are still green in late October.
Is Kyoto still good in early December?
Yes. The first week of December held peak or near-peak color in each of the last three seasons, with far thinner crowds and cheaper rooms than late November. The official full-coloration date in Kyoto fell on December 10 in 2025. By mid-December the show is over.
When does the official foliage forecast come out?
The JMC first forecast has arrived in early September every recent year - September 2 in 2025, September 4 in 2023, September 1 in 2022 - on its koyo pages, with the Japan Weather Association's version on tenki.jp from mid-September. Both are updated roughly monthly through early November.
How reliable is the foliage forecast?
Directionally reliable, not to-the-day. It is a temperature model, and each round gets sharper: in 2025 it correctly called a later-than-normal season from the September release. Use the first round to book cities and hotels, and the late-October round to plan individual days. Never cancel a trip over round one.
